CARIBOO FIRE CENTRE WEATHER FORECAST

ISSUED:  10:30 am Friday June 10, 2022

VALID:  Through Sunday, June 19, 2022

SYNOPSIS: 

      The front which brought rain to the fire centre yesterday has slumped south into Washington state leaving a drier SW flow aloft over the region.  After a mainly sunny start to the day, daytime heating will produce afternoon cloudiness. Showers and thundershowers will be limited to the wet belt and will likely be quite isolated. Highs today mid to upper teens, with a few sites in the central portions of the fire centre hitting the 20 C mark. Minimum RHs will fall into the 17 to 30 % range over the southern half of the fire centre. Winds today SW 10-20 G 35 km/h. Cloudy periods and isolated showers or thundershowers will linger into mid-evening over the wet belt, then skies will become mainly clear over the fire centre overnight.  Lows tonight  +3 to + 8 C with maximum RHs of 75 to 95 % with areas of fair recoveries of 50 -70 % over central portions of the fire centre. Winds SW 10-20 G 30 km/h in the evening becoming light overnight.  On Saturday the SW flow aloft will have weakened further. Daytime heating will produce isolated afternoon showers and thundershowers over the NE half of the fire centre while the SW half remains dry. Highs Saturday upper teens with a few sites reaching 20 C. minimum RHs in the 17 to 305 % range.  Winds on Saturday SW 10-20 G 35 km/h.

3 TO 5 DAY OUTLOOK… SUNDAY TO TUESDAY…  On Sunday a broad weak upper trough will approach from the west bringing an increase in moisture and instability. Daytime heating of the air mass will result in scattered afternoon showers and isolated thundershowers over all zones.  Similar conditions are expected for Monday and Tuesday as the trough persists. High temperatures through the period in the mid-teens with Minimum RHs likely to stay near 30% or above. Winds will be generally light from a west to northwest direction with some afternoon gustiness. 

CONFIDENCE:  Good for the general pattern through the weekend. Confidence is fair for the day-to-day forecast precipitation as there is some uncertainty as to the westward extent of the convective potential over the weekend. Confidence in the general pattern falls to fair by Monday as there is some uncertainty as to the strength of the trough and whether or not an upper low will form over the fire centre on Tuesday.

WINDS ALOFT:  Puntzi Mountain

2000 m SW 25. 3000m SW 35.

6 TO 10 DAY WEDNESDAY TO SUNDAY of next week:  A cool unsettled pattern conditions as a large upper trough with embedded upper lows which will languish over the fire centre through the period bringing partly cloudy skies with scattered afternoon showers or thundershowers each day. Temperatures are likely to be 2 to 5 degrees below seasonal averages through the period.

WEST OF FRASER

TODAY:  Mainly sunny this morning. Cloudy periods this afternoon. Winds SW 15-25 G 30-40 km/h in the afternoon.  MAX TEMP: 15 to 19C.  MIN RH: 17-30%.

TONIGHT:   Partly cloudy in the evening. Clearing overnight.  Winds S-SW 10-20 G 35 km/h in the evening becoming  SW 5-10 km/h overnight.  MIN TEMP: +2 to +4. MAX RH: 75-90% with fair recoveries of 50 – 70% over eastern sections. 

SATURDAY:  Mainly sunny in the morning.  Cloudy periods with the chance of isolated showers or thundershowers over the far north in the afternoon. MAX TEMP: 15 to 19C.  MIN RH: 18 to 30%.

CHANCE OF LIGHTNING/DRY LIGHTNING   

Today: 0%/0%. Tonight: 0%/0%. Tomorrow: 20%/0%..

Venting: Good during the afternoons due to daytime heating and gusty winds.

EAST OF FRASER

TODAY:  Mainly sunny this morning. Mainly Cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thundershowers over the wet belt during the afternoon.  Winds SW 10-20 G 30 km/h.  MAX TEMP: 17 to 21C.  MIN RH: 15 to 25% over the 100 Mile zone with higher values over the north.

TONIGHT:  Partly cloudy with isolated showers or thundershowers over the wet belt this evening. Clearing overnight.  Winds S-SW 10-20 G 30 km/h in the evening becoming SW 5-10 km/h overnight. MIN TEMP: + 5 to + 8 C. MAX RH: 75-95 % with fair recoveries of 50-70% over eastern sections.

SATURDAY:  Mainly sunny in the morning. Partly cloudy with scattered afternoon showers and isolated thundershowers during the afternoon. Winds SW 8-15 G 30 km/h.  MAX TEMP: 17 to 21C.  MIN RH: 17-30% over the 100 Mile zone with higher values over the north.

CHANCE OF LIGHTNING/DRY LIGHTNING  

Today: 30%/0%. Tonight: 10%/0% Tomorrow: 30%/0%.

Venting: Good during the afternoons due to daytime heating and gusty winds.